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RB内部估值模型教程(PPT,307页).ppt

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RB内部估值模型教程(PPT 307页).ppt
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Content Executive SummaryA. Introduction to valuationB. Discount cash flow (DCF)B1. Cash flowB2. Discount rate and WACCB3. Terminal valueB4. Common DCF Q P/S; Revenues/EBIT, etc.Real options model• Dynamic value components of investments and acquisitions• Based on Black/Scholes model• Used for weighting risky projectsAsset based method –“the divestment view”• Valuing assets outside their operating use (not as going concern)• Replacement values versus book values• Value indications: comparable assets; independent appraisesDCF method -“the strategic view”• Discounted cash flow of future periods• Estimation of synergies • Alternative approaches: discounted dividends, discounted incomes, etc.15Document numberA combination of different approaches must be used to calculate a valuation rangeComparable companies methodDCF method Comparable transactions methodAsset based method• Identification of comparable listed companies • Free cash flow planning • Identification of comparable transactions• Stand alone valuation ofindividual assets outside theoperating environment• Selection of multiples • Calculation of WACC, Terminal value • Selection of multiples • Selection of comparable assetsor transactions or appraisers• Application of multiple-ranges to target company • Sensitivity analysis • Application of multiple-ranges to target transaction • Alternative valuations givendifferent sales channels• Valuation-range for target company • Valuation-range for target company • Valuation-range for target transaction• Valuation range for single assetsor portfolio of assetsValuation rangeChange to Real Options16Document numberB. Discount cash flow (DCF)B1. Cash flowB2. Discount rate and WACCB3. Terminal valueB4. Common DCF Q&A17Document numberThe DCF method is the most commonly used valuation method – especially in M&A transactionsSelected aspects of the DCF methodassumptions judgmentPotential areas of conflict• Value drivers (interest and growth rates, currencies.)• Risk-potential of the business• Good will premium• Capital expenditures Company value• Strategic value of the target company (synergy potential, capital expenditures etc.)• Upper limit for bidding price• Impact of an acquisition on financial • structure of acquirer• Stand -alone value of the company• Anticipation of strategic interest of potential acquirers• Lower limit for selling priceStrategic buyer Strategic seller18Document numberThe DCF method is based on three key value driversFree cash flow (to firm) Weighted average costs of capital (WACC) Terminal valueCompany value (CV)CV =  + TVn FCFi(1 + WACC)ii=119Document numberValue drivers in Discounted cash flow method (1)Calculation of WACCWACC re •  i (company) • (1-t) • (1-)= +re = cost of equity = i (market) +  • (M-i (market))i (market) = market risk free rateI (company) = interest rate of company (cost of debt)t = corporate tax rateß = Beta (indicator of systematic risk) M-i (market) = market risk premium • (M-i (market) ) = equity risk premium1- ,  = target capital structurewith  = and (1-) =market value of equitycompany value market value of debtcompany valueTax advantage of debt financing20Document numberValue drivers in Discounted cash flow method (2)Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Derivation of Free Cash FlowsEarnings before interest and taxes (EBIT)– Taxes+ Depreciation± Change of provisions± Change of net working capital= Operating cash flow+ Divestments– Investments= Free cash flow (to Firm)Enterprise Value =Discounted Free Cash Flow– market value of interest-bearing debt+ profit from the disposal of non-operating assetsFree Cashflows0 1 2 3 N N+1Discount of weighted average cost of capital (WACC)Reference PointFCF1 FCF2 FCF3 . Terminalvalue21Document numberValue drivers in Discounted Cash Flow method (3)Calculation of Terminal valueTerminal value Free cash flow of last planning yearEstimation of long term growth rate (g)Discounted TVTV FCFT+1 1(WACC-g) 1(1+WACC)T•= •Be careful The Terminal value usually contributes between 50% and 70% to the overall company value22Document numberPotential pitfalls of the DCF method• Free cash flow forecasting is critical for the valuation• The identification of comparable companies to select the right -factor is essential• The market risk premium is subject to individual judgment• The Terminal Value usually contributes 50%-70% to the overall company value. As the Terminal Value is very sensitive to the underlying parameters (e.g. perpetual growth rate), a broad range of values can be derived with only slight changes of assumptions • The determination of the appropriate tax rate is critical• Examples of other critical points:- Pension liabilities according to balance sheet (mostly Germany, Austria)- Minority stakes when calculating enterprise value versus equity value23Document numberValue of the firmValue of the firm- Value of firm’s debt+ Value of firm’s cash= Value of firm’s equityDiscount free cash flows at the weighted average cost of capital. The result is the present value of both debt and equity, or the value of the firm24Document numberDiscounted cash flow analysis provides an estimate of Intrinsic valueAnalytical process• Develop business analysis• Evaluate risk and target capital structure• Other adjustmentsResults• Projected annual free cash flows• Estimated terminal value• Appropriate weighted average cost of capital• Risk adjusted present value of free cash flows and terminal valueTotal firm value• Net present value of non-operating and off-balance sheet assetsValue of Common• Less debt (net of cash) and preferred stock25Document numberDCF requires in-depth business analysisIndustry outlookCompetitive positionReinvestment needsExpansion opportunities• Anticipated industry growth• Major opportunities/risks• Pricing flexibility• Possible market share changes• Cost structure• Working capital • required capital expenditures• Discretionary investments• New products/stores/format• Development costs• Economies of scale26Document numberThe DCF method is based on three key value drivers+ TVFV = ni=1FCFi(1 + WACC)iFirm value (FV)1Free cash flow to firm (FCF)Weighted average costs of capital (WACC)Terminal value (TV)2 3The DCF Model estimates a firm’s value by discounting the firm’s expected cash flows at a rate which reflects the riskiness of the flows. 27Document numberB. Discount cash flow (DCF)B1. Cash flowB2. Discount rate and WACCB3. Terminal valueB4. Common DCF Q&A28Document numberDetermination of cash flowsEarnings before interest and taxes (EBIT)– Taxes1)+ Depreciation± Change of provisions± Change of net working investment= Operating cash flow+ Desinvestments– Investments= Free cash flow (to Firm)1)Calculated figure (not the actual taxes) for a fully equity financed company29Document numberWorking cash balances+ Accounts Receivable+ Inventory+ Other Current Assets- Accounts Payable- Accrued Liabilities- Other Current Liabilities= Net working investmentChanging net working investmentNet working investment (NWI)• NWI is the net balance of the accounts in the current portion of a company’s balance sheet that move with normal business activity (i.e., move with sales) and operating decisions, but not with financing decisions. • NWI represents the investment in current assets and liabilities required to support sales.• NWI differs from “Working Capital” which includes other accounts that do not necessarily move with sales, such as cash and short-term debt. Source: Roland Berger Analysis 30Document number
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