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中国式增长.ppt

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中国式增长.ppt
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Growing like China,宋铮,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,背景,过去二十年间,中国积累了巨额的外汇储备。不少西方媒体、学者甚至政府机构据此指责中国政府操纵汇率,破坏自由贸易。这种观点从理论上讲是错误的。《中国式增长》这篇文章以现代经济学的标准语言和范式很好地揭示了中国经济的增长之迷和该经济运行过程中存在结构非均衡问题,以及由这个问题所导致的外贸失衡、外汇储备居高不下的真正原因所在,严正地回答了人民币汇率政策绝不是中国外汇储备高企的原因。,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,经济特征,高增长率、高投资率、稳定的投资回报率、 收入分配不平等加剧、巨额外汇储备,增长之谜,高投资率 稳定的投资回报率?,稳定的投资回报率 巨额外汇储备?,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,基础假设,企业之间的生产率异质性,金融市场存在不对称的融资约束,核心命题,私营企业具有较高的生产效率,推动了中国经济的高速增长,私营企业融资能力相对较弱,导致了中国的巨额贸易顺差,驱动因素,资源大规模重组,,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,Part1. Empirical Evidence,Part2. The Benchmark Model,Part3. Quantitative Analysis,Part4. Conclusion,Content,,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,Part1. Empirical Evidence,A. Political Events &Macroeconomic Trends,B. Reallocation in Manufacturing,C. Productivity & Credit Frictions,D. Income Inequality,E. Foreign Surplus & Productivity Growth,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,B. Reallocation in Manufacturing,1998-2007:私企劳动力占比:4%-56%,劳动力向私企的流动体现了资源再分配的进程,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,C. Productivity & Credit Frictions,私企的利润率高出国企约9% 生产率平均差距为1.8%,银行贷款和政府补贴的投资额 国企:30% 私企:10%,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,D. Income Inequality,经济转型伴随着收入不平等: 企业收益快速增长,工人工资增长缓慢,原因:经济转型过程中,劳动力市场,竞争性的,工人不具有议价能力,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,E. Foreign Surplus & Productivity Growth,,,企业劳动力占比每上升10% 外汇储备占比上升将近10% 人均GDP增长率上升约1.9%,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,Part2. The Benchmark Model,A. Preferences, Technology & Markets,B. Discussion of Assumptions,C. Equilibrium during Transition,D. Foreign Surplus, Savings,& Investments,E. Post-Transition Equilibrium,F. Discussion of Results,G. Financial Development,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,A. Preferences, Technology & Markets,utility function:(1),模型假设: a.工人: N t 企业家 : μ N t N t+1 = (1 + ν) N t,c. 生产函数:,b. 两类企业:E企业和F企业,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,Agent saving,工人:,企业家:收入mt,2个用途:储蓄和再投资,银行:收到储蓄,2个用途:贷款&外国债券,竞争性均衡:,衡量金融市场不完善,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,(2),F企业利润最大化:,计算方法:由F企业的生产函数分别对资本和劳动求偏导,Wt=边际劳动产品 R l =边际资本产品,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,E企业利润最大化:,(3),(4),(5),(6),Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,E企业总投资构成及最优储蓄率:,融资约束:,(7),从中求出lE,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,competitive profit-maximizing firms labor market as competitive and frictionless The assumption that private firms are less financially integrated parents transmit genetically entrepreneurial skills to their children F firms are weak at corporate governance and cannot effectively monitor their managers,B. Discussion of Assumptions,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,C. Equilibrium during Transition,(8),由边际资本产品= R l,(9),由公式(5)nEt,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,计算方法:,说明:E企业的投资增长率固定,是因为企业的投资回报率固定,企业的收入及储蓄与企业的利润成正比。,E企业的投资增长率计算:,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,F企业均衡时的投资增长率计算:,平均投资回报率计算:,,人均GDP产出:,(11),,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,D. Foreign Surplus, Savings,& Investments,计算方法:,,,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,外汇—GDP比率:,储蓄率变化:,对F企业而言:,对E企业而言:,,又因为,E企业储蓄大于F企业,总储蓄率上升,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,θ → 1,E. Post-Transition Equilibrium,计算方法:,说明:模型变成标准的世代交叠模型,投资率继续增 长使投资回报率下降。,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,F. Discussion of Results,平均资本 回报率:,,E企业劳动力占比,投资回报率,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,单位效率工人人均工资,单位效率工人人均产出,,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,外汇—GDP比率,总储蓄率变动,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,外部融资难,易获得资本,自我积累,廉价资本,收益于生产率提高,收益于资本密集程度提高,私营企业贷款受限,国有企业萎缩贷款有限,总结,Advanced Macroeconomics,Growing Like China,Thank You,
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